As the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) transitions from reporting only to full financial enforcement, businesses across Europe are entering a new era of carbon accountability. CBAM is no longer just a compliance issue—it’s fast becoming a procurement challenge, a cost-management concern, and a strategic differentiator.

At Artem, we’re developing a next-generation procurement tool specifically designed to help CBAM declarants not only calculate their evolving carbon liabilities but also optimize purchasing decisions.  Powered by predictive analytics and scenario modelling, our platform provides real-time insights to help procurement and compliance teams stay ahead of the curve.

• CBAM introduces a unique set of challenges that procurement teams must now factor into their decision-making:
  1. Fluctuating Carbon Prices: CBAM certificate prices vary throughout the year based on EU ETS averages, making financial planning unpredictable.
  2. Dynamic Emissions Data: Liabilities in tonnes of CO₂ per tonne of imported goods are not fixed at the point of purchase. These values can change retrospectively, depending on the final emissions data submitted by the operator for the reporting period.

  This means procurement can no longer rely solely on unit price or delivery terms. Teams need access to data on carbon intensity, supplier reporting accuracy, and projected CBAM liabilities—all while ensuring they remain compliant with the EU’s evolving regulatory framework.

Artem’s platform tackles these challenges head-on, using AI-driven forecasting and scenario modeling to give CBAM declarants clarity and control.

Key features include:

• Real-Time Liability Forecasting: Our platform analyzes supplier emissions, country-of-origin factors, and historical data to predict liabilities and highlight variability risks.
• Dynamic Emissions Modelling: As actual emissions figures can shift before the operator’s final report, we simulate a range of liability outcomes, helping you prepare for both expected and worst-case scenarios.
• Carbon Price Forecasting: Our models incorporate market data to project CBAM certificate prices, enabling proactive financial planning.
• Procurement Scenario Planning: Users can compare suppliers across emissions intensity, transparency, and cost to find the most cost-effective and carbon-efficient sourcing strategy.

Imagine you’re importing aluminium from three different non-EU suppliers. One supplier offers the lowest upfront price but with inconsistent emissions data and higher embedded carbon. Another provides cleaner production with verified reporting, albeit at a slightly higher cost.

Using Artem, you can model:

• Forecasted and maximum emissions liabilities per supplier
• The effect of projected CBAM certificate prices on overall cost
• The long-term savings and reduced compliance risk from choosing a more transparent, lower-carbon supplier

This empowers procurement teams to make not just compliant but also strategic and sustainable decisions.

CBAM compliance doesn’t need to be a reactive burden—it can be a driver of smarter business. By combining emissions forecasting, price simulation, and procurement optimisation in a single intelligent platform, Artem helps you:

• Maintain regulatory compliance with confidence
• Avoid last-minute liability surprises at year-end
• Procure more sustainably without compromising on performance

At Artem, we’re building tools to bring clarity and confidence to carbon-related decision-making. If you’re navigating CBAM complexities or looking to embed emissions into smarter procurement strategies, we’d love to stay in touch.